Trends of Female Breast Cancer Burden in China over 25 Years: A Join Point Regression and Age-Period-Cohort Analysis Based on the GBD (1997-2021)

This study analyzed the trends of BC among Chinese women from 1997 to 2021 to support evidence-based for the prevention, screening and treatment strategies of female BC in China. We extracted data on BC incidence, mortality, prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years lived with disability (YLDs) and years of life lost (YLLs) among Chinese women from 1997 to 2021 from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD)database. In 2021, the age standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and DALYs of female BC in China were 37.12 and 281.54 per 100,000 women respectively. The AAPC values of the incidence and mortality of female BC were 2.42% and -0.49% respectively (p < 0.05). A-P-C model indicated that both the rates of incidence, prevalence and deaths increased with age from 1997 to 2021. The period effect analysis revealed that the prevalence and incidence risk of BC peaked between 2015 and 2020, with the highest rate ratio (RR) value 1.28 and 1.22. The cohort born in 2002 exhibited the lowest risk of mortality and the highest risk of incidence and prevalence. Over the past 25 years, the large population size and aging population structure in China have led to female BC becoming an important public health issue. Effective preventive strategies and individualized treatment approaches are urgently required to enhance the control of BC in China.