Global, regional, and national burden of breast cancer among females, 1990-2023, with forecasts to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023

Breast cancer is a leading cause of mortality and morbidity among females worldwide. In 2023, there were an estimated 2.30 million breast cancer incident cases, 764 000 deaths, and 24.1 million DALYs among females globally. In the World Bank low-income group, where a low age-standardised incidence rate (ASIR) was estimated, the age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR) was the highest (24·1 per 100 000). The highest ASIR was in the high-income group, and the lowest ASMR was in the upper-middle-income group. Between 1990 and 2023, the ASIR in the low-income group increased by 147.2%, compared with a 1.2% change in the high-income group. The ASMR decreased in the high-income group, changing by -29·9%, but increased by 99·3%  in the low-income group. The increase in age-standardised DALY rates followed that of ASMRs. Risk factors such as dietary risks, tobacco use, and high fasting plasma glucose contributed to 28·3% of breast cancer DALYs in 2023. The risk factors with a decrease in attributable DALYs between 1990 and 2023 were high alcohol use and tobacco. By 2050, the global incident cases of breast cancer among females were forecast to reach 3·56 million with 1.37 million deaths. The stable incidence and declining mortality rates of female breast cancer in high-income nations reflect success in screening, diagnosis, and treatment. In contrast, the concurrent rise in incidence and mortality in other regions signals health system deficits. Without effective interventions, many countries will fall short of the WHO Global Breast Cancer Initiative's ambitious target of achieving an annual reduction of 2.5% in age-standardised mortality rates by 2040. The mounting breast cancer burden, disproportionately affecting some of the world's most vulnerable populations, will further exacerbate health inequalities across the globe without decisive immediate action.