European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2025 with focus on breast cancer

We predicted the number of cancer deaths and rates for 2025 in the European Union (EU), its five most populous countries, and the UK, focusing on breast cancer. We estimated 1,280 000 cancer deaths in the EU in 2025, corresponding to age-standardized rates (ASRs) of 120.9/100 000 males and 79.1/100 000 females. In the UK, we predicted 173 000 cancer deaths and ASRs of 101.2/100 000 males (10.1%) and 82.1/100 000 females (6.3%). In the EU, favorable trends are predicted for major neoplasms, except pancreatic cancer, in males (þ2.0%) and females (þ3.0%), and lung (þ3.8%) and bladder (þ1.9%) cancers among females. Breast cancer mortality showed favorable trends in all countries. Substantial decreases were predicted for EU females aged 50-69 years (9.8%) and 70-79 years (12.4%). Between 1989 and 2025, we estimated about 6.8 million averted cancer deaths in the EU, including over 373 000 breast cancer deaths. Corresponding numbers for the UK were 1 500 000 and 197 000. EU breast cancer rates have fallen by 30% since 1990, due to advances in prevention, treatment, and early detection. Contrasting trends in lung cancer among males and females reflect differing tobacco smoking patterns. Female lung cancer mortality is still increasing in the EU, though less than in the previous decade. Persistent unfavorable pancreatic cancer trends can be related to the increasing prevalence of obesity and limited therapeutic advances, requiring continued attention.