Dongxuan Shao, Ping Wu, Huici Jiang , et al. Front Public Health 2026 Jan 26:14:1702186
Cervical cancer remains a leading cause of morbidity and mortality among women, disproportionately affecting low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We sought to: (1) characterize temporal and geographic patterns of cervical cancer burden (1990-2021), with a focus on age-related differences; (2) identify attributable risk factors for cervical cancer, emphasizing the impact of HPV vaccination; (3) forecast cervical cancer burden through 2050. From 1990 to 2021, global ASIR, ASMR and ASDR declined by 15, 31 and 32%, respectively, yet absolute cases rose due to population growth and ageing. The greatest burdens remain in low-SDI regions, especially Southern Sub-Saharan Africa, which uniquely saw rising ASIR and ASMR. Women aged 55-59 bear the highest rates, while young women (15-39) experienced a small but significant incidence increase in 92 countries (notably Russia, Brazil and China). Unsafe sex and smoking accounted for the majority of cervical cancer DALYs. A profound disparity in HPV vaccine coverage persists between high- and low-SDI regions. Projections to 2050 indicate a continued rise in absolute case numbers, despite modest declines in age-standardized rates (ASRs). While ASRs show improvement, the growing absolute burden and profound geographic inequities highlight an urgent public health challenge. Accelerating the scale-up of HPV vaccination, screening, and other preventive measures, with a strategic focus on LMICs, is critical to achieving the WHO elimination targets for cervical cancer.
24 Mar, 2026